Determinants of change in arterial stiffness over 5 years in early chronic kidney disease.
BACKGROUND: Arterial stiffness (AS) is an established and potentially modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). There have been few studies to evaluate the progression of AS over time or factors that contribute to this, particularly in early CKD. We therefore investigated AS over 5 years in an elderly population with CKD Stage 3 cared for in primary care. METHODS: A total of 1741 persons with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 underwent detailed clinical and biochemical assessment at baseline and Years 1 and 5. Carotid to femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured to assess AS using a Vicorder device. RESULTS: 970 participants had PWV assessments at baseline and 5 years. PWV increased significantly by a mean of 1.1 m/s (from 9.7 ± 1.9 to 10.8 ± 2.1 m/s). Multivariable linear regression analysis identified the following independent determinants of ΔPWV at Year 5: baseline age, diabetes status, baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure, baseline PWV, ΔPWV at 1 year, ΔSBP over 5 years and Δserum bicarbonate over 5 years (R2 = 0.38 for the equation). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a clinically significant increase in PWV over 5 years in a cohort with early CKD despite reasonably well-controlled hypertension. Measures of BP were identified as the most important modifiable determinant of ΔPWV, suggesting that interventions to prevent arterial disease should focus on improved control of BP, particularly in those who evidence an early increase in PWV. These hypotheses should now be tested in prospective trials.